Tuesday, July 12, 2011

Macbeth's June jobs number

Just as in Shakespeare’s act 5 of Macbeth, today’s jobs report was full of sound and fury signifying nothing.  Yesterday’s ADP report which showed the addition of 157k private sector jobs, sent economists scurrying to increase their estimate of jobs created from +100k to about +125k. In the end the Labor department just reported the nonfarm payrolls for June that shows a gain of 18k with the unemployment rate moving up to 9.2%.  The last two month’s numbers that were revised down by 44k so adding that means a net loss of 26k.  You can’t put lipstick on it and say this report is anything other than a pig as the hourly earnings dropped to -0.1% from a consensus of +0.2% which means employees were paid less. That means consumer spending down the road could be lessened.  The average work week came in at 34.1 vs. the consensus of 34.4 so employers weren’t working their employees as hard.  I am not sure the economy is as bad as this report shows as companies are still doing more with fewer employees and their profits are very good as the stock market shows.  The specter of higher taxes in 1 ½ years, regulation from Dodd Frank, Obama care, NLRB interfering with Boeing wanting to build and expand its business has frozen corporate managers into not wanting to hire anymore.  The real driver of the economy is small business and they absolutely are not hiring another employee right now for all of these regulatory fears and Washington does not get this. 

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