Friday, September 2, 2011

Emergency unemployment benefits expiring

Emergency unemployment benefits expiring

Now that's going to leave a mark

Good morning everyone, the Department of Labor just released the non-farm payrolls number for August and it was ugly.  The unemployment rate stayed at an already high 9.1% and zero jobs were created but the last two months were revised for the worse by 56k so we actually lost a total of 56k not zero.  The private sector created only 17,000 jobs when 110k was expected and the average workweek stayed the same at 34.3 and hourly earnings fell 0.1% vs. an expected rise of 0.2%.  This all means that employers were not working their employees any more hours and paying them less which leads to lower consumption down the road.  In a consumer driven economy like we have this adds bricks to the wall of worry the market has to climb.  In reaction to these numbers stock futures sold off hard as did the US dollar while gold and bonds rallied.  The internals of the jobs numbers needs some context so about 50k of Verizon workers became unemployed because of their strike and a similar number of government works went back to work so it was a wash.  I don’t see how Washington can spin this in a positive way as much as they may try, there is even more talk of the Fed doing a 3rd round of quantitative easing to try and stimulate the economy.  Employers are on strike and are not going to hire as long as there is so much anti business rhetoric coming from Washington.  The last round of Fed quantitative easing (QE3)  goosed stock and commodity prices but when the QE3 ended prices have come right back down and employment is worse than before.  We are out of money and have been for some time so it seems as if it is time to try something different.  The President should read the Wall Street Journal’s assessment of Jon Huntsman’s economic plan that was just announced, he could do worse.