Are we headed for a recession?

Are we headed for a recession?

Economy Improving?: Financial experts talk about the future

Economy Improving?: Financial experts talk about the future

Glass half full report

The September non-farm jobs number was just released and it appears very good.  I have saying for months that the economy was stronger than the market was implying and the second half of the year should be much better than the 1^st half.  Today’s jobs number is making that case as 103,000 total jobs were created vs. the expected 60,000.  Adding to that rosy picture was the private sector with private payrolls adding 137,000 vs. the expected 83,000.  Looking at the internals, it was an even better report with August being revised from zero jobs to 57k and July revised from 20k to 127k.  With revisions like this, it adds weight to my thesis that the economy is stronger than previously thought.  In addition the work week increased from 34.2 expected to 34.3 hours worked with hourly earnings coming in 0.2 vs. 0.2%.  This implies that employers worked their employees slightly more but didn’t pay them more.  When we see the work week increase and hourly earnings increase as well for several months then we can look  at better hiring picture for a sustained period of time. As it currently stands, American corporations are very strong and flush with cash but not hiring, if you listen to the CEOs talk they say it is because they fear the anti business rhetoric coming out of Washington DC regarding taxes and regulation.  As much as the President tries to bash and shame them into hiring, they don’t seem to be listening to him, rather focusing on running their business the best way they know how.  The less than positive aspects of the jobs report are that the unemployment rate stayed at 9.1% and the broader unemployment rate which includes discouraged and marginally employed rate increased to 16.5%. Teenage unemployment is at 24.6%.  We are also at 31 months at unemployment above 8.5%  compared to 24 weeks for the early ‘80s when the US was in an equally or worse economic environment. Watching the weekly jobless number that is released every Thursday morning at 6:30 EST will be key to the October jobs number as that number moved far below 400k last week and only bounced up to slightly above 400k this week. 

Gary Gygi on GMU

Gary Gygi on GMU

INTERVIEW: Gary Gygi - The 'Dismal' Unemployment Numbers | Rod Arquette

INTERVIEW: Gary Gygi - The 'Dismal' Unemployment Numbers | Rod Arquette: Rod Arquette's blog postings.

Emergency unemployment benefits expiring

Emergency unemployment benefits expiring

Now that's going to leave a mark

Good morning everyone, the Department of Labor just released the non-farm payrolls number for August and it was ugly.  The unemployment rate stayed at an already high 9.1% and zero jobs were created but the last two months were revised for the worse by 56k so we actually lost a total of 56k not zero.  The private sector created only 17,000 jobs when 110k was expected and the average workweek stayed the same at 34.3 and hourly earnings fell 0.1% vs. an expected rise of 0.2%.  This all means that employers were not working their employees any more hours and paying them less which leads to lower consumption down the road.  In a consumer driven economy like we have this adds bricks to the wall of worry the market has to climb.  In reaction to these numbers stock futures sold off hard as did the US dollar while gold and bonds rallied.  The internals of the jobs numbers needs some context so about 50k of Verizon workers became unemployed because of their strike and a similar number of government works went back to work so it was a wash.  I don’t see how Washington can spin this in a positive way as much as they may try, there is even more talk of the Fed doing a 3^rd round of quantitative easing to try and stimulate the economy.  Employers are on strike and are not going to hire as long as there is so much anti business rhetoric coming from Washington.  The last round of Fed quantitative easing (QE3)  goosed stock and commodity prices but when the QE3 ended prices have come right back down and employment is worse than before.  We are out of money and have been for some time so it seems as if it is time to try something different.  The President should read the Wall Street Journal’s assessment of Jon Huntsman’s economic plan that was just announced, he could do worse.