Good morning everyone, the BLS just released the monthly situation report for January and the jobs report has disappointed once again.  The consensus was for a gain of +50k to 250k and it came in at +36k with a drop of unemployed to 9% from 9.5%.  The unemployment rate decreased for one of two reasons, one good and one not so much.  The good reason is if the number of people looking for a job  found one and the bad reason is if people looking for a job get discouraged and just stop looking for a job. Both reasons can cause the rate to decline and I believe the reason for January’s drop is weather related and people getting discouraged and dropping out not finding a job.  The December number was revised higher to 121k from 103k and private payrolls was +50k vs an expected +163k as December’s private payrolls was revised higher to 139k from 113k.  The January work week was 34.2 hours vs consensus 34.3 so employers were not working their employees any longer, however the hourly earnings increased 8 cents to average $22.86.  The increased hourly earnings should bode well for future consumer spending.  As I have said many times, all economic numbers are revised for the better in a strong healthy economy and as mentioned earlier, they have done just that.  In terms or what to expect going forward, you have to watch the work week and hourly earnings numbers every month because before employers hire new people they first work their current employees longer and then pay them more, one of which is happening (higher wages).  The conflict is what I see as an improving global economy being led by the US but a lack of hiring. Corporations are doing more with less so that is why the stock market keeps going up.  The companies reporting earnings are doing better financially and stock prices reflect this.  At some point this year, corporate managers will realize that they just can’t work their employees any longer and will need to hire more people or just not be able to grow their business.  I expect to hear that the headline is the 9% unemployment number but the real story is one of confusion and conflicting data. 

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Good morning everyone, the December jobs number was just announced and is good but not good enough, kind of like getting a kiss on the cheek from your sister, its nice but you would rather get a kiss from your wife or girl friend.  The headline number is a gain of 103k vs an expectation of 150k+ so the futures market is selling off sharply as the market had moved up in anticipation that jobs created would be higher.  A positive item is that the unemployment rate dropped down to 9.4% from 9.8% which is much better than expected.  November’s number was revised from 39k to 71k and as I always say, in an good economy, economic numbers are revised for the better.  I am sticking to my thesis that the global economy is getting better and expanding, but this expansion is prone to many fits and starts.  The private sector or non-government hiring was up 113k vs 162k expectation and November was revised from 50k to 79k to the better.  The work week stayed the same at 34.3 which was as expected so employers are not working their staff any longer and they will need to do so before they hire more employees.  The drop in the unemployment rate to 9.4% from 9.7% is most likely due the expiration of benefits and possibly some seasonal effects. 

First Trust Economics Blog - The Antitode to Conventional Wisdom

First Trust Economics Blog - The Antitode to Conventional Wisdom

November’s non-farm payrolls number was just released and is a massive miss and disappointment to the markets as it demonstrates that hiring is still not picking up as every economist had expected.  We are not economists here at Gygi Capital but wow, what a surprise.  The headline number is a positive +39k when +150k was expected, the all important private sector was +50k vs. expected +140k.  The hourly earnings was flat at 0.0% as a slight increase of 0.1% was expected and the workweek was also flat at 34.3 hours and was just as expected. This means that employees weren’t worked any longer nor paid any more and as I’ve said the sequence of hiring is first that employees are worked longer than paid for that extra work before the employer hires more people.  The percent of unemployed workers in the US ticked up to 9.8% and this is not politically sustainable.  What I mean by this is that this is going to put pressure on the politicians to break bread and compromise on extending benefits to the unemployed and also extend the Bush tax cuts.  If you need some background or an interview for your stories, please call and we will accommodate your request.

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NBER announces the recession over as of 06/09, doesn't feel like it.

Getting interviewed this afternoon on KSL News radio regarding the call by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) that he recession is over as of June of '09.  Could of fooled me and millions of fellow Americans.  Technically it is correct, I have been saying for over a year that the recession ended somewhere in the late summer or early fall of '09.  So I am two months late but for economic purposes this is a bulls eye.  Will try and post the audio file later.

Less bad jobs report for August

Getting ready for an interview this morning at 8:45 on KSL news radio. I will be talking on today's less bad jobs report for August. Not sure it changes my soft patch economic forcast but hope so.

Caddell on the Midterm Elections - Article - National Review Online

Caddell on the Midterm Elections - Article - National Review Online