Santa comes early?

The labor department just released its November jobs number and the rate fell to 8.6% while 120,000 total jobs were created and 140,000 private sector jobs were added as well.  Expectations have been moving higher as the ADP private employer number released on Wednesday showed a 206,000 increase in November.  The futures were strong before the news on constructive debt talks in Europe over night and then stalled as the internals show the work week stayed the same at 34.3 hours worked but hourly earnings dropped 0.1% vs. an expectation of 0.2% gain.  The participation rate on the survey dropped which probably explains the unemployment rate drop down to 8.6% so don’t be surprised if the rate is revised back up next month to close to 9%.  The job revisions added some positive data points as October was revised to 100k from 80k and September went to 210k from 158k so a net gain from revisions of 72k.  You add 72k to the headline number of 120k and you end with 192k,000 jobs created which is good for those people who got jobs and comes close to the 200k needed monthly to keep up with population growth.  I have been saying for months that the US was not headed for a double dip recession and today’s number adds to that thesis,  however I also don’t extrapolate one month’s number into a trend so while today’s number is welcome it doesn’t mean we have a blockbuster economy because we don’t.  Job creation has been lagging while the recent economic data is good as indicated by data below.  The argument put forth by most CEO’s who do speak on record is that they are afraid to hire because of all the added regulation and the specter of higher taxes rates down the road so it seems as if we may move back and forth while not going anywhere over the next year until the next election decides who is going to be in charge of the US economy.  The Dems want to tax the rich and anything that moves in order to pay down the debt and the GOP wants to lower corporate tax rates and make permanent the Bush tax cuts while raising revenue from closing loop hole deductions and subsidies.  Each side in intractable and not likely to give any room in concessions therefore it is up to the President to decide if he is willing to let the country and economy stall for the next 11 months hoping to get 4 more years for state controlled redistributionist schemes.